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The Hong Kong Office Market – When is The Next Bust?
Hong Kong, the ‘Jewel in the Crown’ is a territory of 1,029 sq kilometers, nestled on the southern side of China. For the visitor to Hong Kong from the mainland, the island and the New Territory adjacent to it across the Hong Kong harbor present a unique fusion of the best that the West and the East have to offer. Chinese entrepreneurship and hard work, mingled with a British legal system, high standards of education, and western business ethic standards, can all be felt as soon as one crosses the border or flies into Hong Kong International Airport. The predictability and solidity of a system that has hardly changed since the handover in 1997 serves well as a home for foreign and Chinese companies alike. Building codes and tenancy agreements in Hong Kong mostly follow British standards, and are in English. Hong Kong has always spent a lot of money on infrastructure, and Hong Kong people have been lucky enough to see the outside world, and its affluence, and demand a greater supply of consumer products and better quality buildings. The real estate market is enjoying a boom, particularly the office market, where current rent levels are hitting HKS120 – HKS130 psfpm; HKS150 psfpm and higher has been reached in IFC for premium grade A offices. But how long can this continue? To attempt to answer this question, it is necessary to take a look at the some of the fundamentals.
Booms and Busts
Despite the political and cultural stability, the history of Hong Kong’s commercial real estate is a history of real estate booms and busts. The 1980’s are known as boom years in Hong Kong; the cycles were short, with an upturn from the bottom of a market only ever 18 months away. There was a serious dip in 1983. In true Hong Kong fashion, the market recovered over the following five years to peak in 1988, when rents rose by 180% in 12 months. Right after that, there was Tiananmen Square in 1989, but by 1991 to 1994, things were picking up. Many newcomers; banks and financial institutions in particular, wanting to use Hong Kong as a springboard for expansion into China, opened up their offices in this period. Companies like Merrill Lynch and Goldman Sachs for example. Goldman Sachs opened up a 5000 sq foot office in the Landmark building back in 1990. Now they are leasing around 250,000 sq feet.
John Harrison
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ImpressMedia is an established British publishing house which over the past four years has created a series of real estate magazines in Russia. The most famous of these is Commercial Real Estate, which has become a strong brand in the Russian market, and serves as an important means of communication between suppliers and providers; as well as between real estate professionals seeking to widen their horizons. In 2003, ImpressMedia also started a yearly commercial real estate Awards ceremony, which has now become an integral part of the real estate world in Russia. John Harrison helped create 'Commercial Real Estate' magazine in Russia, and was its first editor, from November 2002 to August 2005. He has written about real estate for over a decade.
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